Onspin.com Casino

Formulas and Results

To simplify things and also to be conservative I will assume you lose 50% of hands, win 40% and have a stand off in 10%. Firstly let’s assume there are no bonuses and you are playing with all your own money. You have $300 and you want to wager a total of $1200. Also let’s assume you will gamble the $300 each hand. The most hands you would play are 4. The possible outcomes for each hand are:

S = Stand off (Probability = 0.1)

W = Win (Probability = 0.4)

L = Lose (Probability = 0.5)

The possible outcomes over 4 hands, and their probabilities are:

Outcomes	Probability (Pr)	Return (R)	Expected Return (Pr X R)
L	0.5	-$300	-$150.00
WLL	(0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.1	-$300	-$30.00
WLWL	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WLWW	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WLWS	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSL	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
WLSW	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSS	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WWLL	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WWLW	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WWLS	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WWWL	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.5) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WWWW	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.4) = 0.0256	$1200	$30.72
WWWS	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.1) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WWSL	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WWSW	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WWSS	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSLL	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
WSLW	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WSLS	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WSWL	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WSWW	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WSWS	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSSL	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WSSW	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSSS	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SL	(0.1x0.5) = 0.05	-$300	-$15.00
SWLL	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
SWLW	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
SWLS	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SWWL	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
SWWW	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
SWWS	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SWSL	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SWSW	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SWSS	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSL	(0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.005	-$300	-$1.50
SSWL	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SSWW	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SSWS	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSSL	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.0005	-$300	-$0.15
SSSW	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.4) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSSS	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1) = 0.0001	$0	$0.00
Total	1		-$17.85

What the table above shows is that (assuming Pr(W) = 0.4, Pr(L) = 0.5 and Pr(S) = 0.1) if you gambled at an online casino with your own money and you made 4 bets of $300, on average you would expect to lose $17.85 or 5.95% of your money.

Using the bonus money instead of your own, the winnings will not change however whenever you lose you only lose $100 not $300. The table below shows the expected results for 4 hands.

Outcomes	Probability (Pr)	Return (R)	Expected Return (Pr X R)
L	0.5	-$100	-$50.00
WLL	(0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.1	-$100	-$10.00
WLWL	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WLWW	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WLWS	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSL	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.5) = 0.01	-$100	-$1.00
WLSW	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSS	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WWLL	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.04	$0